NBA Playoffs: Round 2 Predictions

Wow, what a first round. The East… happened, but in the West chaos reigned. 

The Suns beat the Lakers in a battle of “my injuries are worse than yours”. Denver outlasted Portland as Nikola Jokic stared down the barrel of “Dame Time”, yawned, shuffled his way to the bucket and mocked those who questioned his MVP. Utah eased by Memphis, but are also feuding with Donovan Mitchell so who knows how that’s gonna play out. The Clippers gutted out a tough victory over Luka and the Mavs, proving that they aren’t as soft as people thought.

In the East it was a succession of easy victories as Milwaukee easily swept the Heat and Philly, Brooklyn, and Atlanta all won in 5. However the injury to Joel Embiid has changed the outlook of the conference.

Alright there’s your setup, now let’s break it down and make some predictions. You can check out my first round predictions here.

EAST

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1)Philadelphia 76ers v 5) Atlanta Hawks

As expected Philly waltzed through the Wizards in round 1, but in game 4 their season changed. Joel Embiid injured his knee (partially torn meniscus) and it is questionable if he plays in this series and improbable that he’s anything resembling healthy. Without a healthy Embiid this team just isn’t a title contender anymore. However, that doesn’t mean they can’t win this series. They still have Ben Simmons who despite his problems shooting from the field (he doesn’t) and the line (the Wizards used hack-a-Ben in round 1) is an elite defender and playmaker. He’s shown in the past that he’s capable of leading the team sans Embiid. Tobias Harris is coming off a career year and they will probably need somewhere around 25 a night from him. Without Embiid I would expect more minutes from Seth Curry and Tyrese Maxey to boost a lackluster offense. They also have an elite perimeter defender in Mattise Thybull whom I expect to see a lot of in this series. If he can make a few shots that’d be a real game changer. 

The Hawks surprised me in round 1. While I knew they had a big talent edge I still thought they’d lose to the Knicks, but from game 3 on they kicked their ass. Trae Young was able to dominate the offensive end despite poor shooting and was able to hide on defense. Clint Capela had a strong series and with the questions surrounding Embiid has to be feeling good about how this series is setting up for him. Bogdan Bogdonavich and Kevin Huerter showed shot making and playmaking to keep the team afloat without Young on the floor. The Hawks will need a big series from Deandre Hunter as he’ll be defending Harris and Simmons a lot in this series.

This series is very hard to call. I think it’s safe to assume that even if Embiid plays he’ll be extremely limited. Stylistically Philly will play like a more talented version of the Knicks, so Atlanta shouldn’t have too much trouble finding a rhythm. I think Philly will do a much better job hunting Trae on offense and they have Simmons and Thybull to put size and outrageous perimeter defense on Trae. The last thing to note is that these are both great home teams. I think that’s the ultimate decider for me in this series, with little confidence I’ll go 76ers in 7.

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2)Brooklyn Nets v 3) Milwaukee Bucks

Oddly enough the first round was our longest look yet at what a healthy Brooklyn team looks like and whoo boy did they look dangerous. Durant, Kyrie, and Harden absolutely dominated on the offensive end and their fit looks clean as could be. They’ve shown a commitment to going small and switching on defense as Nic Claxton is the only center they played in round 1. The other guys they feature all looked pretty good as Joe Harris was draining threes and Bruce Brown was doing his thing. This will be a huge series for Blake Griffin, especially because of the injury to Jeff Green, as he will spend a lot of time defending Giannis. One huge area of concern is the defensive glass. Against Boston they played excellent initial defense, but were squashed on the glass.

I thought Milwaukee would struggle against Miami, but after a tight game 1 they obliterated them in the last three. The scary thing is that they did mostly with their defense as Giannis struggled to score. That will be a concern, especially because of his struggles from the foul line. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday both played excellent two way basketball and they’re going to be asked to do even more this series as Milwaukee will need both their perimeter creation on offense and for them to play elite defense on the other end. Brook Lopez was excellent in round 1 and they will need him to take advantage of his matchups in round 2 on offense or he won’t play because Brooklyn will make him work defensively. After these four guys there’s not a lot of depth and despite his big round 1 it’ll be hard to play Bryn Forbes in this series when Brooklyn will hunt him in switches. 

This is the series of the playoffs. It’s more likely than not that the winner of this series will win the title. The big question is which team can exploit the other’s weaknesses without exposing their own too badly. A big thing for Milwaukee is how crisp they’ll be on switches. They struggled during the regular season, but against Miami’s poor shooters it wasn’t a problem. Brooklyn doesn’t have poor shooters. The thing to watch is how much Milwaukee plays Lopez and Forbes and whether Brooklyn will be forced to play Deandre Jordan. If Lopez is forced off the floor it’s a bad sign for Milwaukee, but if Jordan plays it doesn’t bode well for Brooklyn. I’m going with Brooklyn in 7.

*note- All of this was written pre-Harden injury. The Bucks will probably win now. We’ll see when there’s an update.

WEST

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1)Utah Jazz v 4) LA Clippers

After the return of Mitchell the Jazz ran through Grizzlies with relative ease. However there are concerns around the hamstring of Mike Conley. The Jazz don’t have much depth and can’t really afford to be down one of their top guys. Rudy Gobert is a fantastic player and will certainly protect the rim, but Utah really will need is for him to control the glass at both ends. There’s gonna be a lot of pressure on Joe Ingles as he’s the only quality two way wing on the Jazz. They’re going to be relying on Bojan Bogdonavic and Jordan Clarkson to consistently fill it up. Offensively this team has plenty of options, but in the playoffs teams will attack holes in their defense. 

There were a lot of questions about the mental fortitude of the Clippers, but they answered all of them against Dallas. They had every opportunity to fold, but they never did. Kawhi was dominant and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue. Paul George needs to start making threes. He did everything else in round 1, but shot poorly from three. Outside of the two stars I’m curious to see how much Luke Kennard and Terrance Mann will play. Mann played more minutes as the series went on and his energy was pivotal. Kennard didn’t play until game 6, but made a big impact in game 7. It’s unlikely Serge Ibaka will play and I’m very curious if we’ll see more Ivica Zubac or not. Reggie Jackson was balling in round 1. Even Marcus Morris showed up in game 7, which helped because Nic Batum has no interest in shooting.

The Clippers are the deeper and more talented team, but the Jazz are more comfortable in their identity. I believe that after proving their mental strength in round 1 the Clippers will prove to be too good for Utah. Clippers in 6.

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2)Phoenix Suns v 3) Denver Nuggets 

After a series dominated by injuries the Suns were able to find that can of whoop ass as they gave the Lakers that work in the last three games of the series. For the Suns it feels as simple as whether Devin Booker is on or not. In wins in game 1,5, and 6 Booker was cooking. When he struggled they struggled. On the bright side of that Chris Paul is starting to look healthier every day after his shoulder injury and if he can start shooting threes again lookout. The best news out of round 1 was the great two way play of Deandre Anton. He was able to protect the rim, rebound, and score efficiently against a big Lakers team. Cam Payne was there give a boost off the bench and Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges played very solid basketball.

Put some respect on Nikola Jokic’s name. The presumptive MVP continued his dominance in round 1. Jokic has proven time and again his life playoff greatness and without Jamal Murray he will need to keep carrying these dudes on his back. Michael Porter Jr is clearly a very talented player, but they’re going to need more from him in this series. He’s a great shooter, but he’s gotta start making plays in isolation and on the pick’n’roll to go to the next level. Aaron Gordon played fantastic in round 1 and will be asked to both lock up Booker on one end and knock down open threes on the other. Between Monte Morris, Austin Rivers, and Facu Campazzo Denver will need at least two of them to step up. Also Paul Milsap and JaMychal Green will need to play well off the bench to keep pressure off of Jokic.

Foul trouble will be key to this series. If Jokic can get Ayton into foul trouble then Phoenix will have no one to put on him and the Suns defense will collapse. For Phoenix they’re going to have to make threes. They struggled shooting for the most part in round 1 and Denver will force them to make shots. Phoenix played exceptional defense in round 1, but Denver is a much better shooting team and Jokic will punish any concentration lapses on defense. Phoenix has the better, healthier team and absolutely should win this series, but Jokic is the best player and Denver always finds a way to make a series interesting. Honestly this is just a complete guess, Nuggets in 7.