Tier 1: Elite Player
This tier is devoted to the elite of the elite prospects. These guys all look like multi-time all stars and all-NBA guys. There is a wide gap between this tier and tier 2.
1)Cade Cunningham (Oklahoma St)– Cade came into the year as the #1 prospect and after a fantastic freshman year at Oklahoma State, he has solidified himself at the top of this draft class. There is no other player with his combination of size, scoring, and playmaking ability. While not an über athlete he is more than athletic enough to score, especially with his size skill combo. The big question mark coming into the year was his shooting, but he shot the ball really well this year. The only real concern from this season were his turnovers, but I put that mostly on his bad teammates. Even in a year with several elite prospects he is the clear #1.
2)Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga)– Suggs is the type of big athletic point guard that every team in the league is looking for. He has excellent court vision and there is no reason to think he won’t be able to step into league and immediately run an offense. He also projects as a plus defender. The only question about his game is his shot. While I don’t believe it will stop him from being awesome, I do believe his poor jumper puts a ceiling on his talent. A crazy high ceiling, but a ceiling nevertheless.
3)Jalen Green (G League)– If there is one player in this draft with the ability to be better than Cade it is Green. He is a pure two guard and an outrageous athlete. He has shown the ability to score in bunches in the G League, which is incredibly promising. He also showed a much improved jumper, which is especially helpful as you don’t have to project how he will adapt to the NBA line. There are concerns about his defense, as he is a little thin. However with NBA training and his athleticism it will be all up to his effort to determine how good he can be at that end.
4)Evan Mobley (USC)– Mobley is #2 on most boards, but I don’t see it. From what I’ve seen he appears to be more of a Clint Capela type big than an Anthony Davis. Defensively he has the whole package. He is a bit light in his lower half, but post defense isn’t all that important anymore. On offense he looks like a rim runner who can also make one dribble plays. However I’m not seeing any #1 option potential from his offense, which is why he is below Green and Suggs for me.
5)Jonathan Kuminga (G League)– Kuminga has all of the tools to be great. He has great size and athleticism for a wing and could conceivably develop to defend 1-5. The question marks are all on offense. He is incredibly raw, which distinguishes him from the other prospects in this tier. It will probably take a few years for him to really come into his own. He has high bust potential if the wrong team drafts him, but with proper development his upside is limitless.
Tier 2: Realistic All-Star
This tier is reserved for players that have a realistic shot to be an all star. Some of these guys have higher ceilings than others, but all of them have clear paths to all star level.
6)Kai Jones (Texas)– Jones is a 6’11” big man that is relatively new to basketball and therefore pretty raw. That being said he moves like a guard. His feel for the game is in its infancy so don’t expect him to dominate from day one. He’s a hesitant shooter, but has shown good touch when he does shoot. Played in a crowded front court at Texas, so going to the league will help with that. I love this man’s upside, as you just don’t find guys this big who can move like him.
7)Davion Mitchell (Baylor)– Not the biggest or most athletic guard, but he has stones. He’s showed excellent shotmaking off the dribble, which is always a key skill for the modern guard. Also is a very good passer which is a huge plus. Defensively he is a terrier, but his lack of height limits him to a guard only defender. He is also an older prospect, will be 23 when the season starts, so he will have to hit the ground running to be a worthwhile pick.
8)Keon Johnson (Tennessee)– Johnson is an incredibly athletic, but raw wing. He was a decent free throw shooter, but that did not extend into the games. He should be an excellent defender at the next level. Showed some playmaking skills late in the year, but this is a guy that will need to go to a team with a strong development staff.
9)Scottie Barnes (FSU)– A big combo guard at 6’9”. He is exactly the type of player I always fall for. A good athlete he will be an excellent multi positional defender at the next level. On offense he’s a big playmaker that can get in the lane and make plays. Like most players his jumper is his swing skill and there are reasons for concern there. That being said at his size he will be a valuable player even if the shot doesn’t come along.
10)Josh Giddey (Adelaide 36ers)– He’s a 6’8” point guard and if it isn’t obvious I love a big playmaker. He’s a bit light, but at his age that’s not a huge concern. He’s not a great shooter and that will continue to be a big concern. Rebounds the ball well. Has defensive concerns, but the hope is his size will mitigate some of that as he becomes more experienced.
Tier 3: Starter
I view this tier of players as “safe” picks. These guys all have ready made skills that should ensure 10+ year NBA careers. Most of these guys project as middling starters or frontline bench guys. These are role players.
11)Korey Kispert (Gonzaga)– The best shooter in this Kispert is a lock to be a serviceable player at the very least. He has good size which will allow him to be a solid defender in the league. He’s also shown the ability to put the ball on the floor, although I wouldn’t call him a playmaker. Needs to prove that he won’t lose confidence if his shot isn’t falling.
12)Franz Wagner (Michigan)– Wagner is a jack of all trades combo guard/ wing. He does everything well, which allows him to fit into any team. Would function best as a secondary playmaker. Doesn’t have any elite skill, which limits him to a high end role player ceiling.
13)Sharife Cooper (Auburn)– A small point guard who is generously listed at 6 feet. Other than his size has everything else you would want in a point guard. Is a fierce competitor that will do what it takes to succeed. Can be a starter for a mediocre team, or a high end bench player for a real contender.
14)Tre Mann (Florida)– Mann is a big point guard, 6’5”, that has very good shot making skills. He has shown the ability to hit threes off the catch and dribble, which will guarantee him a career. His defense is only so-so, but he can rebound well for his position. The big question is about whether he has the ability to run an offense or not.
15)Moses Moody (Arkansas)– Moody is a big, long wing that profiles as a prototypical 3 and D wing. His best skill is his ability to get to the free throw line. He’s not a great athlete and I believe that will be what holds him back from being special.
16)Jared Butler (Baylor)– Butler is a solid wing prospect. He is a very good shooter and defender and can immediately slot into the rotation of a contender.
17)James Bouknight (UConn)– Probably would be best used as a Will Barton type player. To truly lock down a role as a starter on a contender he will have to improve as a jump shooter.
Tier 4: Wild Card
This tier is full of very talented, but very raw players. A lot of these guys were elite recruits that struggled in their freshman seasons. There are also some young Euro prospects that are always tough to project.
18) Ziaire Williams (Stanford)– Williams was a big time recruit coming into Stanford and at times flashed his immense potential. He’s a big athletic wing that also flashes playmaking. He’s not a good shooter, but if he sorts that out he could be elite. I really like his potential and wouldn’t be surprised if he went top 10. He’d have bust potential, but I’d like the swing.
19)Jalen Johnson (Duke)– Another big, playmaking wing Johnson was an elite prospect coming out of high school. He got off to a solid start at Duke, but ultimately struggled to play in the half court. There are character concerns because he opted out of the season halfway through, but I’m not worried about that. He is a crazy athlete that is really good in the open floor. Should be a good defender. Another player with shooting concerns. Didn’t take many jumpers in college.
20)Jaden Springer (Tennessee)– Springer doesn’t have the size or athleticism of his more highly rated teammate, but he is an excellent defender with good feel for the game. The concern is about his shooting and at his size it’s imperative that he at least becomes a catch and shoot guy to stick in the league.
21)Alperen Sengun (Besiktas)– At 6’10” the center has the size to play in the league. He plays in a very competitive league in Turkey. Not an elite athlete. Good hands and finishes well. He can pass and had flashed some shooting.
22)Usman Garuba (Real Madrid)– Garuba is on one of the best teams in Europe and that is a plus. Plays bench minutes and at his age that works just fine. Good wing defender. The hope will be that his shot comes along.
23)Filip Petrusev (Mega Bemax)– Petrusev is 6’11” center with perimeter skills. He’s older than your typical Euro prospect, but his skills will keep him in the first round. He’s not thin, but rebounding and defense will be concerns. Really shoots the ball well and scores for his team in Europe, although it’s not elite competition. I think this guy might really have something.
24)BJ Boston (Kentucky)– Boston is another in the long line of wings that came into Kentucky highly touted, but struggled. He didn’t really flash much game in college, but at this point in the draft it would make sense to take a shot on a prospect with his pedigree.
25)Daishen Nix (G League)– Nix is a rotund point guard that has elite feel for the game. While he has size there are real concerns about his weight. He also doesn’t have much of a jumper. That being said we’ve guys with weight problems fall in the draft, then get into shape and have successful careers.
26)Keyontae Johnson (Florida)– This is all about health. As a player Johnson is a top 10 prospect. He is an elite athlete that can shoot and make plays off the dribble. He’s also a quality defender. He’s only 6’6”, but makes up for it with his length, strength, and athleticism. The concern is about his health. He passed out on the court in December and we still don’t know why. That being said I believe he’s definitely worth taking a risk on.
Tier 5: NBA Player
These are the guys that teams will keep around. It’s a tier full of players that have something that teams are looking for, but aren’t necessarily blessed with the talent of the players above them.
27)Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois)– Really good college guard that brings good size to the table. Solid shooter who plays good defense. Should be able to stick in the league.
28)Greg Brown (Texas)– Brown is a mobile 4-5 that struggled to find space at Texas. Defensively he has the tools to be great. He is an outrageous athlete that has flashed shooting potential.
29)Cameron Thomas (LSU)– Thomas is 6’4” scoring guard that doesn’t really shoot threes. He is an excellent free throw shooter though, so there is hope. He’s smaller than TJ Warren, but that is his prototype.
30)Marcus Bagley (ASU)– Bagley is your run of the mill 3 and D prospect. However there are questions about the 3 and the D, so his future is pretty uncertain. Good size though and good athleticism.
31)Isaiah Jackson (Kentucky)– A solid 6’10” center prospect that has a high pedigree. This is the point of the draft where taking a chance on centers makes sense.
32)Charles Bassey (Western Kentucky)– Bassey is coming off of an outstanding junior season. He’s a solid player with good size. Shot free throws well, so he could have some shooting upside.
33)Max Abmas (Oral Roberts)– Not a big guard, but is an excellent shooter. Exploded in the NCAA tournament. Sometimes these guys are CJ McCollum, sometimes they’re Carsen Edwards.
34)Scottie Lewis (Florida)– Lewis is an awesome athlete with an incredible engine. He will never give anything less than 100% effort. Has shown some shooting ability. Also has a little off the dribble game. Not a playmaker.