It’s good to be back. It was a fine Thursday in Augusta and the powers that be put out a tough course. After two straight years of record scoring the players were treated to a firm, fast course. Shots that were sticking the last few years had that extra roll and we saw multiple balls putted off greens. The pins were all in brutal positions on the edges of slopes as we consistently saw balls just continue to trickle away from the hole. With low scores at a premium there are still a lot of players still right in the thick of contention. While low scores were hard to come by there weren’t many disasters so most everyone will feel they have a chance. Let’s go through the round.
The Leaders
https://www.masters.com/en_US/scores/index.html
There was a clear scoring advantage for the morning wave of players. It was obvious as the day went on that the greens were getting firmer and faster. That being said there has only been one player to come from outside the top 10 after the first round to win The Masters this century, Tiger Woods in 2005 and 2019, so we must conclude these are the only players with a chance of winning. Let’s go through them.
My goodness was Justin Rose ever on fire. After starting +2 thru 7 he turned it on with an eagle on 8 and never looked back. His 65 was 6 shots better than any other player in the afternoon wave. The biggest question mark for him going forward is his health as he’s had numerous back problems of late. He also has a history of 18 hole leads at Augusta and has not won, so I’m not really a believer despite his dominance today.
Hideki Matsuyama and Brian Harman were the only other players to break 70. Matsuyama definitely has the game and track record to win, but he’s never been able to hole enough putts. Harman is a grinder, but he doesn’t have the game to win here.
Patrick Reed and Webb Simpson are both elite players and major champions that have shown the ability to finish tournaments in this stage and gave success on this course. Will Zalatoris and Christian Bezuidenhout also shot 70 and while they have the game to hang around at this point I don’t view them as real contenders.
Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Jason Kokrak, Tyrell Hatton, and Jordan Spieth round out the top 10 after rounds of 71. This was a huge round for Hatton as he has not been able to confirm his status as a top 10 player in the world with major success. For Spieth this is a confirmation that he is back amongst the game’s elite and that he is if the favorite, then certainly right there to win this tournament.
The Favorites
Dustin Johnson- It was certainly a tough finish for the defending champ today. He didn’t hit the ball well, but for the first 17 holes his short game got him through in even par. Unfortunately for him after a poor drive on 18 he couldn’t scramble for par and missed a short bogey putt to settle for a 74.
Jon Rahm– A very solid even par start for Rahm. He was my pick before the tournament and his start only has me feeling more confident. Never too high, never too low in his round and he looks primed to contend for the title.
Rory Mcilroy– Mcilroy’s struggles continued as he slapped it around for a 76. Combined with his struggles coming in there isn’t much hope for a Mcilroy comeback. However if you want to believe, he did recover from an opening 75 to finish top 5 in November.
Justin Thomas– Very solid opening 73 for Thomas. He played in the tougher afternoon wave and while there isn’t much positive to say, there also aren’t many negatives and he is right in the thick of this tournament.
Jordan Spieth– Honestly it feels like there is no stopping Spieth this week. He’s in the top 10, which is a strong precursor for winning and despite a triple bogey on 9 he was still able to post in red figures. He also chipped in on for eagle on 15, which was a great break as the pace of the ball was going to take it into the water, and those are things that happen when he wins.
Bryson Dechambeau– His ball striking today was absolute butt. I had low hopes for Dechambeau coming into this tournament and his round today only confirmed that. At this point it is much more likely he misses the cut than makes it. This is just a bad course for him.
Best Shots, Moments
Tommy Fleetwood hole in one on 16.
Dustin Johnson’s chip in at 11.
Rory Mcilroy hitting his dad with a shot.
What To Expect Tomorrow
With scoring being as hard it is, making the cut is paramount. Right now it appears 5 under is a very reasonable target score for a winner, so it is very possible that everyone who makes the cut could put themselves right in the mix with a mid-60’s round on Saturday. Right now the name of the game is to hang tough and put yourself in position for when you do have your A game. I would expect more green light pins Friday, enticing players to take more risks. Look out for Reed and Rahm to be atop the board going into the weekend. Also, as I’ve said earlier, this really feels like a Spieth week. I would expect Rose to drop from 7 under, but he has a big enough cushion that he is still the most likely to lead heading into the weekend.